Original-Research: Vossloh AG (von Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft): BUY

Classification of Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft to Vossloh AG

Company Name:	Vossloh AG
ISIN:	DE0007667107
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
from:	14.07.2026
Target price:	80
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Daniel Kukalj, CIIA, CEFA

High volatility in the short term
After Vossloh revised its FY 2026 guidance yesterday (13th July) after the close of trading we maintain our Buy rating with a reduced TP of EUR 80 (86), applied by our ROE/COE valuation approach. Sales are now seen at EUR 1,510-1,610m (prior: EUR 1,560-1,660m, -3% at the midpoint), EBITDA at EUR 195-210m (prior: EUR 215-230m, -9%) and EBIT at EUR 100-110m (prior: EUR 118.5-131m, -16%). The new EBIT range implies a mid-point margin of ~6.7% vs. ~7.7% previously guided and 8.3% reported in FY 2025 – this is primarily a margin cut, not a top-line story. The new guidance still assumes a steep ramp. The new ranges imply H2 sales of ~ EUR 800-900m (+5% to +18% yoy vs. ~EUR 760m) and H2 EBIT of ~EUR 68-78m (margin ~8.0-9.7%), i.e. roughly a doubling of the H1 margin. H1 order intake of EUR 828.5m (+32.8% yoy) implies a book-to-bill of ~1.17x, and the rail-infrastructure order backlog hit a record EUR 1,140.7m (+31.7% yoy.) The company was able to increase its TTM sales by 16.9% yoy or 2.3% qoq. TTM order intake was 31.5% yoy and 8.4% qoq higher, the TTM book-to-bill ratio hit with 1.11x levels as seen in 2024. We expect the share price to experience high volatility in the short term; once the situation has stabilised, the medium- to long-term outlook should come into focus and the valuation trend should return to positive.
 
You can download the research here: VOSSLOH_AG_20260714
For additional information visit our website: https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/
Contact for questions:
Quirin Privatbank AG
Institutionelles Research
Schillerstraße 20
60313 Frankfurt am Main
research@quirinprivatbank.de
https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/