Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name:	tonies SE
ISIN:	LU2333563281
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 18.5
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Christian Sandherr

Q2 preview: Growth to further accelerate
tonies looks set to report a strong Q2 marked by further accelerating growth, carried by particularly high demand for the Toniebox 2, paving the way for strong margin expansion in H2. Q2 results are due on August 20th. In detail:
Growth seen to accelerating further. Following an already strong Q1, we expect group sales to reach € 109m, up 37% yoy (H1: € 235m, +33% yoy), also aided by fading FX headwinds. Next to a continued solid development in DACH (eNuW: +22% yoy), North America should have remained the group's growth engine with a 60% yoy sales increase (H1: 38%). This is largely due to unabatedly strong demand for TB2 (eNuW: +62% yoy Toniebox sales), which continues to exceed expectations following its Q3'25 launch. Importantly, figurine demand shows no signs of slowing either (eNuW: +31% yoy), underpinning the health of the ecosystem.
Rapidly growing installed base accelerates the flywheel. While the elevated share of Toniebox sales should slightly weigh on the H1 margin (eNuW: adj. EBITDA breakeven vs 2.1% in H1'25), it lays the foundation for a notably higher H2 profitability. Mind you: every box sold today statistically yields c. 20 high-margin figurine sales over the following 4.5 years. Hence, the strong H1 box momentum sets the stage for accelerating, margin-accretive attach revenues in H2, particularly in the all-important Q4. Here the enlarged installed base should meet the launches of blockbuster content such as Pokémon and Bluey, the most streamed show in the US for two consecutive years. The H2 adj. EBITDA margin is hence seen to increase by 3.1pp to 14.2% (eNuW).
FY guidance well in reach. Against the backdrop of a strong Q2, both the group sales guidance of >20% yoy growth (cc) and the NA sales guidance of >30% yoy (cc) look well achievable, in our view. In fact, with key content launches (Pokémon, Bluey) as well as the new 'Toniebox lite' around the corner in H2, the guidance could even prove conservative. Meeting the guidance would only require 13% group and 27% NA growth in H2.
Our take: Q2 should once again confirm that tonies' growth is compounding rather than maturing. The combination of an accelerating installed base, intact figurine demand and a content pipeline covering nearly all relevant IPs de-risks the H2 margin story and the upbeat mid-term targets presented at the recent CMD.
To recap: tonies is a category-defining ecosystem with subscription-like repurchase behaviour, still-low US household penetration of just 12% (vs. 58% in DACH) despite near-complete distribution across retail partners covering ~85% of the US pre-school market, and a content engine licensors now chase. Management guides for sales of more than € 1.4bn by FY30e (vs € 630m in FY25, 18% CAGR) alongside a 16-18% adj. EBITDA margin (FY25: 8.6%), driven by new market entries, the upcoming 'Toniebox lite', rising US penetration and the natural mix shift toward high-margin attach revenue. By FY30e, the company will have transformed into a global icon with particularly strong cash generation thanks to its capex-light set-up.
BUY with an unchanged € 18.5 PT based on DCF.
 
You can download the research here: tonies-se-2026-07-23-previewreview-en-4c894
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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