Original-Research: SMAG Mobile Antenna Masts AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to SMAG Mobile Antenna Masts AG

Company Name:	SMAG Mobile Antenna Masts AG
ISIN:	DE000A42FR12
Reason for the research:	Initiation
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 47
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Standing tall in a critical niche; INITIATE WITH BUY
SMAG is a rare pure-play on the mobile communications infrastructure behind the digital battlefield. Many tactical radio links depend on line of sight, making antenna height critical to range, coverage and network resilience. Radar, electronic-warfare and surveillance payloads also often benefit from elevation. Combining height and payload with stability, rapid deployment and mobility under battlefield conditions is SMAG's specialised niche.
SMAG offers a best-in-class height and payload combination. Its highest mast reaches 40m with a 600kg point payload, operates without guy-wires and deploys in only a few minutes. Across its product portfolio, SMAG has fielded more than 2,000 systems in over 20 countries, providing extensive operational and integration experience. SMAG also works with customers early in programme development and helps define mast specifications, enabling its engineering know-how to shape platform requirements. Military qualifications and relationships with more than 50 defence primes, OEMs and government agencies reinforce its position as a trusted specialist supplier.
The € 1.4bn total order backlog provides the basis for a significant earnings step-up. At YE25, backlog equalled 24x the midpoint of the 2026 output guidance, while the € 140m fixed portion alone corresponds to c. 2.5x our 2026e total output estimate. The central programme is TaWAN, the deployable transport network connecting forward D-LBO networks with the Bundeswehr's rear core and a key enabler of Germany's NATO readiness commitments. Rheinmetall holds a ten-year framework of c. € 8bn, including an initial € 1.9bn call-off for one division. TaWAN accounts for € 868m of SMAG's backlog, comprising € 110m fixed and a € 758m option. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger has indicated that TaWAN could potentially double from c. € 8bn to c. € 16bn based on German planning considerations. This points to substantial programme potential beyond the existing framework and supports our view that SMAG's € 758m option is highly likely to be exercised in full (eNuW).
Growth is now moving from backlog into production. We expect total output to grow at a 2025–28e CAGR of c. 49% to € 113m in 2028e. TaWAN deliveries, added production space and welding automation should enable operating leverage, lifting adj. EBIT from € 4m in 2025 to € 10.8m in 2026e and € 26.6m by 2028e. This implies a 2025-28e CAGR of 89% and a 2028e margin of 23.5%. FY26e requires a strong H2 ramp, making production progress and guidance confirmation the first important proof points.
Additional programmes broaden the growth opportunity. Demand for air defence, passive surveillance, counter-UAS and deployable air traffic control creates a pipeline beyond TaWAN, while the fielded base supports a growing aftermarket. Success would gradually diversify SMAG's programme mix.
SMAG's share price is c. 45% below the peer-implied value of € 49 on 2027 EV/EBITDA, creating an attractive risk/reward. INITIATE with c.75% upside and PT at € 47, based on DCF. BUY.
You can download the research here: smag-mobile-antenna-masts-ag-2026-08-20-fullnoteinitiation-en-4734c
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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