Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB

Company Name:	Scandinavian Astor Group AB
ISIN:	SE0019175274
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	SEK 46
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Q2 review: new scale, H2-weighted, chg.
A quarter that changed the group. Q2 was the first period with Nordic Shield Group (NSG) in the perimeter, consolidated for a single month, and the reported numbers show a company roughly twice the size of a year ago: sales +89% yoy and a record order book up 111%. Meanwhile, underlying profitability dipped on shifted deliveries and product mix, with the deliveries landing in H2 and mix guided to normalise. Martin Elovsson took over as CEO in May and has continued the buy-and-build toward a Nordic defence ecosystem, adding PBH Teknik most recently.
Q2 sales rose 89% yoy to SEK 171m, carried by acquisitions (Carbonia, Ammunity and one month of NSG). Organic growth was slightly negative, due to shift effects. A larger contract won earlier slipped out of the quarter after the customer requested a different delivery configuration. These volumes are expected to come in H2.
Q2 underlying EBITDA came in roughly flat yoy at c. SEK 11m, a 6.2% margin (-5.8pp yoy). Three effects explain this: i) shift effects into H2, ii) a worse product mix in the protect segment and iii) ramp-up cost for capacity increases, following supportive customer dialogues. At the same time, the Industry segment (44% of Q2 sales) has maintained a strong margin of 20% (+9pp yoy), driven by a larger share of high-margin defence related contracts (similar to Q1) that is expected to persist (eNuW). Reported EBITDA arrived at SEK 142m carrying a SEK 132m NSG revaluation gain.
Strong backlog to support H2, despite soft order intake. Q2 order intake of SEK 81m implies a book-to-bill of 0.5x. Procurement cycles have lengthened as individual contract sizes have grown. Noteworthy, Astor books fixed contracts only, with framework agreements not part of the calculation. As prime contractors (Astor's customers) have strong order books, it should be a matter of timing until Astor receives its share, especially as the company points to a high level of quotation activity and to positive ongoing customer dialogues. The order book stood at SEK 610m end of Q2, of which SEK 595m is scheduled for delivery in 2026. This renders our estimated H2 sales of SEK 559m conservative and leaves room for further unforeseen phasing effects.
NSG generated SEK 180m of sales at a 17.8% EBITDA margin in the five months to end-May, before consolidation. Annualised, that is close to half the enlarged group, at a margin well above what Astor reported in Q2. While this quarter had only one month of NSG fully consolidated, H2 will carry six and should thus perform well.
In sum, Astor enters the second half with a record backlog, a structurally higher Industry margin and PBH Teknik closing in September to add precision manufacturing capacity into Mikroponent, while the Protect volumes which shifted out of Q2 are expected to land in the same window. Meanwhile, uncertainty from the soft order intake appears to be already reflected in the valuation, improving risk-reward, in our view. In fact, a European defence supplier peer group is trading at PER (2027e) of 22x vs. Astor's 12x.
Action: we raise 2026 profit estimates by the NSG book value gain and reflect the PBH acquisition in our numbers, starting September. At the same time, we reflect the order intake uncertainty and increasing risk-free rates in a higher discount rate (8%; previously: 7%).
BUY, PT SEK 46 (old: SEK 54), based on a valuation mix of DCF and a peer group analysis.
You can download the research here: scandinavian-astor-group-ab-2026-08-13-previewreview-en-b2c5e
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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