Original-Research: Hoenle AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Hoenle AG

Company Name:	Hoenle AG
ISIN:	DE0005157101
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 14
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Sarah Hellemann

FY25/26 guidance cut related to demand softness in Curing
Yesterday, hoenle announced a guidance cut for the current FY 25/26 on account of weaker-than-anticipated demand in Curing. In detail:
Anticipating flat-ish FY 25/26 revenue development, management has reduced and narrowed its implied sales growth projection from to -1.8% to 1.4% yoy growth (old: 1.4% to 12.1% yoy growth). In absolute terms, FY 25/26 revenue guidance shifted from € 95-105m to € 92-95m. While Adhesives and Disinfection continue to deliver on growth, Curing looks set to remain a weak contributor. We attribute the weak performance in particular to soft investment demand from customers in the printing industry. In our view, the new revenue guidance looks achievable.
FY 25/26 EBITDA guidance now tilted to a decrease yoy (€ 5-6m instead of € 6-9m). This reflects the reduced sales expectations while also leaving room for negative one-offs, given current developments such as the insolvency of Manroland Sheetfed GmbH in early March. The upper end of the guidance is supported by restructuring efforts in Curing from FY 24/25, ongoing efficiency and product portfolio optimization in Adhesive Solutions and clear growth ambitions in Disinfection, especially concerning the water purification solutions. In our opinion, the new EBITDA guidance looks rather conservative, as it seems to factor in potential downside risks and one-off effects despite several operational initiatives that could support earnings throughout the year.
Expectations on Adhesives and Disinfection unchanged. hoenle has clearly outlined that it continues to expect both sales and earnings growth from Adhesives and Disinfection. This is supported by H1 figures, with sales growth of 1.8% yoy in Adhesives and 7.8% yoy in Disinfection as well as EBITDA growth of 18.1% yoy in Adhesives and 8.5% yoy in Disinfection. For FY25/26 we continue to forecast a combined sales growth of 6.3% yoy for these business units to € 64m, while combined EBITDA is seen to come in 6.8% higher yoy at € 6.4m.
Adjusting our estimates on Curing. Given the weak development in H1 25/26 (sales -19% yoy) and a negative EBITDA contribution of € 1.4m, compared to € -0.6m in FY24/25 and a dimmed outlook, we lower our FY25/26 forecast on Curing. Client investment reluctance is proving more persistent than anticipated at the start of the year, especially in the printing industry. Instead of a 5% yoy sales decline and a slightly positive € 0.4m EBITDA, we now project sales to fall 13% yoy to € 29m with a negative € 0.4m EBITDA contribution (FY 24/25: € -0.2m). As the demand recovery from product innovations and a stronger push into non-printing end markets is clearly delayed, we also cut our sales growth estimates to 4% yoy for FY 26/27e (old: 9%) and 6% yoy for FY 27/28e (old: 9%).
Reducing our FY 25/26 forecast. As indicated by changes outlined above, we reduce our full year estimates to € 93.1m in sales (eNuW: -0.6% yoy) and € 6m in EBITDA (eNuW), implying a 0.2pp improvement on the EBITDA margin to 6.4%. Notably, this brings our net income expectation for FY 25/26 to € -1.4m (eNuW), still reflecting a net income improvement over € -3.1m in FY 24/25.
The investment case remains intact, supported by product innovation in pipeline across segments, further product portfolio optimizations and internal process improvements. Despite the delayed improvement in Curing, we see moderate to strong sales growth driven by Adhesives and Disinfection. Maintaining BUY with a reduced PT of € 14 (old: € 15), based on DCF.
 
You can download the research here: dr-honle-ag-2026-07-23-update-en-6417a
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++