Original-Research: Global Fashion Group S.A. (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Global Fashion Group S.A.

Company Name:	Global Fashion Group S.A.
ISIN:	LU2010095458
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 1
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Christian Sandherr

Q2 review: First profitable H1 on better unit economics
GFG released H1 figures that confirm the operational inflection anticipated at the FY25 results, with the group now delivering profitability across a full half-year rather than a single strong Q4, eNuW.
Q2 group NMV came in at € 263m, down 0.6% yoy (on cc), a clear sequential improvement from Q1's -3.0%, as a 5.3% higher average order value (€ 68.7) and 1.8% higher order frequency largely compensated for 5.6% fewer orders and active customers of 7.0m (-5.5% yoy). Management attributes the AOV increase to reduced discounting, price inflation and a more favourable regional mix. Q2 sales of € 169m (-2.9% cc, Q1: -4.3%) continued to lag NMV, reflecting the ongoing shift towards an asset-light marketplace. H1 NMV stood at € 478m (-1.7% cc).
Further profitability improvements. Q2 adj. EBITDA reached € 6.1m (3.6% margin vs. 1.8% in Q2'25) with the gross margin flat yoy at 47.7%, but carried by lower key cost ratios (e.g. tech & admin). H1 adj. EBITDA of € 0.8m (H1'25: € -7.7m) marks the first profitable H1 within the current footprint and, importantly, decouples profitability from a volume recovery.
Cash generation continued to improve, with Q2 normalised FCF turning positive at € 1.8m (+€ 3m yoy) on stable leases, working capital and capex, lifting the LTM figure by € 28m yoy to € -19m. Notably, management confirmed that c. € 30m adj. EBITDA is required for FY NFCF breakeven, a level our estimates reach in FY27/28e without any NMV recovery. Pro-forma cash stood at € 105m with net cash of € 89m.
All three regions profitable in H1. ANZ (+3.0% cc) remained the growth engine on further active customer gains, while LATAM was broadly flat (-0.6% cc). SEA declined 10.3% cc, yet still improved its gross profit yoy, evidencing that the region has been right-sized ahead of any demand recovery. Notably, each region delivered yoy adj. EBITDA margin expansion in H1.
Guidance narrowed in both directions. GFG cut FY26 cc NMV growth to -4% to 0% (old: -4% to +4%, eNuW old: +0.8%) on a softer expected H2, while raising the lower end of adj. EBITDA guidance to € 18-25m (old: € 15-25m, eNuW: € 19m). Helpfully, AUD and BRL have turned supportive after three years of translation drag, hence the cc range converts into reported NMV of € 1,050-1,090m (eNuW old: € 1,049m). Our adj. EBITDA of € 19m remains unchanged.
With the group now profitable in every region and the path to sustainable cash generation quantified (and within reach), the current valuation continues to understate the progress made. Tellingly, gross profit less fulfilment and marketing is up 91% per active customer and 99% per order versus LTM June 2023 (cc), despite 23% fewer customers, i.e. the base GFG shed was structurally unprofitable and the improvement is embedded in the operating model rather than dependent on demand. Additional evidence of stabilisation in SEA could support an earlier re-rating. We hence confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged € 1.00 PT based on DCF.
You can download the research here: global-fashion-group-sa-2026-08-14-previewreview-en-0c7e1
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++