Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG

Company Name:	Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN:	AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 58
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Q2 preview: guidance leaves ample room for upside, chg.
Flughafen Wien will release its H1 report on 19 August. We expect resilient Q2 figures and see the conservative FY26 guidance paving the way for positive surprises in H2. Here is what to expect:
Q2 sales look set to decline 3.2% yoy to € 289m (eNuW). Group traffic was broadly flat at -0.4% yoy, with the mix shifting to Malta +15.6% and Kosice +45%, while Vienna declined 6.5% yoy, reflecting the expected low-cost-carrier reductions as well as Middle-East traffic below pre-crisis levels. Moreover, Q2 should see the full impact of the reduced airport charge scheme. Following Covid-19, this reflects a return to a stable long-term formula, which should broadly track inflation in the coming years. Hence pricing is expected to again return to a tailwind in 2027.
Despite the softer top line, Q2 EBITDA is seen flat at € 130.5m (eNuW), implying a 1.5pp margin improvement to a strong 45.2%. Three drivers should stand out: (1) the group's cost efficiency programme, most likely resulting in declining headcount, (2) the non-recurrence of prior year one-offs (damages and environmental provisions) and (3) continued operating leverage in fast growing Malta.
The FY guidance implies an overly cautious H2, in our view. Management targets approx. 41.5m PAX, € 1,050m sales and € 415m EBITDA. Held against our H1 estimates (20.0m PAX, € 528.6m sales, € 218.4m EBITDA), this leaves an implied H2 PAX decline of 9.7% yoy (21.5m), a sales decline of 13.7% yoy (€ 521m) and underlying EBITDA deterioration of 23.4% yoy (€ 196.6m; adj. for € 55.9m one-off costs in Q4 2025). The magnitude of the decline looks difficult to reconcile with the traffic and margin trajectory expected in Q2, in our view. We hence raise our FY26 estimates to € 1,075m sales and € 430m EBITDA (c.4% above guidance, 40.0% margin). Even these numbers still embed a marked H2 slowdown, with implied H2 sales down 9.6% yoy and underlying H2 EBITDA down 17.6% yoy. We therefore continue to regard our own estimates as conservative. A guidance hike in H2 looks like a matter of time (eNuW), in line with management's typically prudent planning.
Politics add an incremental positive: the federal government earmarks € 30m p.a. for the aviation sector in its 2027/28 double budget, with the allocation to be decided by end of September. The industry appears to prefer usage of the funds for a cut of the flight tax. No game changer, but any relief would strengthen Vienna's competitiveness.
All in all, the investment case remains fully intact: FWAG combines infrastructure grade earnings quality with structural growth, strict cost discipline and debt free funding of investments (€ 330m in 2026e), leaving ample room for attractive dividends (c. 3.6% yield). With increased estimates and the guidance upside as a potential catalyst, the risk/reward remains compelling.
BUY, new PT € 58 (old: € 57), based on DCF.
 
You can download the research here: flughafen-wien-ag-2026-08-05-previewreview-en-9214b
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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