Original-Research: bet-at-home.com AG (von NuWays AG): Buy

Classification of NuWays AG to bet-at-home.com AG

Company Name:	bet-at-home.com AG
ISIN:	DE000A0DNAY5
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	Buy
Target price:	EUR 5
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Sarah Hellemann

World Cup to boost growth in Q2 26; chg. Est
bet-at-home.com is to report its Q2 26 figures on 21 September. We expect a quarter of strong top-line growth on the back of the World Cup. In detail:
Q2 net revenue is seen to accelerate by 9.8% yoy to € 9.7m (eNuW), driven by special advertisements, which should support online betting and through greater brand visibility also add to online gaming growth.
Growth to be carried by both segments. We expect online sports betting GGR up 9.5% yoy to € 11.2m (eNuW), with volumes projected up 5.8% yoy to 76.9m (eNuW) bets on the back of the World Cup and a gross margin improvement of 0.5pp yoy to 14.6% (eNuW) on a favorable betting mix development anticipated. Online gaming GGR is seen to rise by 10.7% yoy to € 1.7m (eNuW), as stronger brand visibility is expected to raise the volume (+ 8.3% yoy) to 14.7m (eNuW) with a gross margin largely consistent with Q1 26 at 11.9% (eNuW; +0.5pp yoy).
World Cup-related marketing spending is to burden EBITDA, despite partial compensation from a stronger top line. In our view, the additional special advertisements in multiple countries (i. e. Germany and Austria) should reflect in marketing expenses of € 5.7m (eNuW), up 72% yoy. Given the substantially higher costs anticipated, we project reported EBITDA to come in at € -0.3m (eNuW), below Q2 25 reported EBITDA of € 1.2m.
Upper half of FY26 guidance viewed as ambitious. The company expects FY26 results to reflect € 46-54m in gross betting and gaming revenue with EBITDA before special items ranging from € 0-4m. Despite anticipating a stronger H2 from elevated brand visibility and a normalized cost base, we adjust our full year targets from € 52.1m in gross betting revenue to € 49m (eNuW) following a weak Q1 26 performance (-16.1% yoy) and our EBITDA projection from € 3.6m to € 0.5m (eNuW) on a weak Q1 contribution (€ -0.3m) and anticipated higher costs in Q2.
Positive regulatory developments on the horizon. The Austrian government is currently pursuing a major reform of the Glücksspielgesetz that would end the effective monopoly in online gambling and replace it with a competitive licensing system. If passed, this draft could open up the way to an official license for bet-at-home.com AG. Although we do not yet include this in our projections due to remaining uncertainty on timing and conditions, this could become a favorable catalyst towards strengthening the online gaming segment.
Our conviction remains that the company provides investors with an attractive value proposition. This is supported by current valuation (0.9x P/B), two highly cash generating double-digit margin segments and the company's high net cash base. Looking ahead, we do not expect any substantial risks arising from the ongoing, but mostly unchanged legal legacy proceedings. We reiterate BUY with a new PT of € 5.0 (previously € 5.5), based on FCFY’26e.
- change in analyst -
You can download the research here: bet-at-homecom-ag-2026-09-15-update-en-dfffd
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++